Friday, October 28, 2005

Intrade and Political Intelligence

I was very surprised to see how closely intrade called the indictment situation regarding Libby and Rove. Over the weekend both stocks shot up on news that appears to have been accurate. There were indeed five indictments. But Libby remained around 80 all the way up to the day before the indictments came down. Rove on the other hand dropped like a rock the day before. How has this happened? Is it a big enough market that people actually involved have taken positions? I would presume that that is illegal, yet due to the nature of the market, improbable to detect. And the number of people with that information would be very few. So how did the market figure this out? The leaks and coverage appear to have predicted the outcome with very good accuracy. Its a very interesting situation. So as a final note, the contract on Rove expires Dec. 31. Its still possible for the hopeful liberal. This is the follow up to my original post:

The Inflamitory: Libby and Rove Stocks Go Up

No comments: